Its mostly due to Algebra.

The challenging and fascinating part of this is the intellectual challenges involved. Why is this conounding and frustrating? Its mostly due to Algebra.

Long ago, thanks to my math and science background, I have developed a focus on not the outcome, but the process. That was how all of those math classes got graded: You needed to show the formulas that led to your conclusions. Anyone could get the correct answer through a random but not reproducible approach. The goal of calculus was to teach the methodology, so that you increased the probabilities you would end up with the correct answer in the future.

Markets don't quite work that way.

Consider the long list of folks who have been right in their analysis, but wrong in the timing of the market reaction to this; Then think about some of the weaker bullish arguments -- there have been an enormous run of absurd arguments, false theories, ridiculous analyses. Regardless, these get overlooked by many as the markets continued upwards. Right answer, wrong process.

I never hear the Bulls argue "Markets go up most of the time, so just buy stocks and tough it out through the weak periods." I recognize the truth of that statement, but I also recognize it makes for a lousy marketing campaign. So instead, we get what passes for analyses like The Fed Model (flawed), Money Flow (spotty record), Random Walk (junk science), Earnings emphasis (non-correlated).

Many of these strategies have been unequivocally proven wrong -- but because their ultimate conclusion was to buy, the erroneous process gets overlooked.